In Spring 2002, a worldwide lull in war developed. Scholars of international relations do not agree about whether this is the endgame of a long-term trend towards the cessation of war (because democracies do not fight each other), or merely a momentary pause in a war-prone world. If the latter, the pause could end catastrophically at any moment, with a major war between India and Pakistan, in the Middle East, through terrorist attack on the United States, or elsewhere.
Political scientists traditionally measure war "severity" through battle fatalities. Adapting this measure, I am tracking war fatalities reported daily in the New York Times. This is a partial sample based on where reporters go and what editors print, but given the propensity of media to try to cover hot spots, I think this variable tracks the ups and downs of war severity worldwide. It is easily replicable and available in near-real-time (i.e., the next day). The real number of war fatalities worldwide is higher than that reported by the New York Times, owing to ongoing conflicts in places like Democratic Congo and Colombia where pitched "battles" seldom occur and day-to-day killings are not newsworthy. On the other hand, changes in levels of war severity, such as a war starting or ending, or a dramatic escalation, are likely to be picked up in the New York Times.
The following data track reported war fatalities from May 15, 2002.
(Coding rules)
I have invited predictions about the total for June 2002
(click for more information)
-- in effect a guess about whether the lull will last or a war will escalate.
| Print Date | Reported Fatalities | Comments |
| 5/16 | 0 | Wed. May 15, a good day! |
| 5/17 | 1 | Palestine (shooting) |
| 5/18 | 20 | Afghan 10 (9 airstrike + 1 firefight [clarified 5/19]), India 7 (5 firefight, 2 bomb), Palestine 3 (shootings) |
| 5/19 | 0 | India-Pak artillery duels, unknown number [CNN reported 3]. Also reported 5/19: 4 in Pakistan firefight on 5/14 |
| 5/20 | 13 | India-Pak 10 (5 raid, 5? Pak shelling as reported by India); Israel 2 (bomb); Afghan 1 (US soldier shot). Also reported 5/20: 5 in Afghan raid on 5/12 |
| 5/21 | 16 | Israel 2 (1 bomb; 1 more from bomb 5/19); Lebanon 1(bomb); Afghan 2 (1 more from 5/19; 1 assassination 5/19); India 6 (2 shelling, 3 raids, 1 murder); Pakistan 5 (additional from 5/18-19, now reported as 10); |
| 5/22 | 5 | Afghan "a few" coded as 3 (airstrike); India 2 (assassination) + fifth day of artillery duels but no casualty report |
| 5/23 | 8 | Israel/Palestine 8 (3 bomb, 4 tank strike, 1 shot) |
| 5/24 | 5 | Israel/Palestine 3 (2+1, bombs); Iraq 2 (airstrike) |
| 5/25 | 3 | Israel/Palestine 2 (1 bomb, 1 shot); Afghan 1 (raid) |
| 5/26 | 11 | Israel/Palestine 3 (shootings); Ind/Pak 5 (artillery); Colombia 3 (on 5/23, land mines, plus 12 missing) [June prediction deadline, midnight 5/26] |
| 5/27 | 1 | Afghan 1 (raid 5/23, shot) |
| 5/28 | 15 | Isr/Pal 3 (bomb); Ind/Pak 3 (5/25, infiltrators shot); Somalia 7 (5/24, raid); Afgh 2 (additional, from 5/23 raid) |
| 5/29 | 137 | Israel 6 (shootings); Somalia 26 ("at least", street fighting); Nepal 105 (raid) |
| 5/30 | 0 | |
| 5/31 | 42 | India/Pak 42 ("dozens" in shelling, coded as 36, and 6 in raid) |
| 6/1 | 4 | Israel/Palestine 1 (raid); Afghan 3 ("friendly fire") |
| **** | Start of reported fatalities for June 2002: | |
| 6/2 | 2 | Ind/Pak 2 (gunfight) |
| 6/3 | 0 | [Burma 5, before 5/3; Pakistan/Afghan 1 5/19, several around 5/22] |
| 6/4 | 12 | Afghan 1 (raid 6/2); Colombia 9 (bomb, 6/2); Madagascar 2 (shooting) |
| 6/5 | 1 | Israel/Palestine 1 (shooting) |
| 6/6 | 19 | Israel/Palestine 19 (18 bomb, 1 raid) |
| 6/7 | 16 | Israel/Palestine 2 (1 shooting, 1 raid 6/5); Ind/Pak 14 ("at least", Kashmir shelling) |
| 6/8 | 9 | Philippines 6 (raid); Israel/Palestine 3 (raid, "at least"), Burma 0 ("heavy fighting," no casualty report) |
| 6/9 | 5 | Israel/Palestine 5 (1 more from 6/8, 2 shot, 2 bomb) |
| 6/10 | 2 | Isr/Pal 1 (raid); Ind/Pak 1 (cross-border fire) |
| 6/11 | 0 | (Isr/Pal 1, repeats 6/10) |
| 6/12 | 7 | Isr/Pal 7 (4 shootings, 3 bomb) |
| 6/13 | 12 | Israel 12 (shootings); [Afghan 3 plane crash apparently not hostile fire] |
| 6/14 | 0 | |
| 6/15 | 67 | Pak 11 (bomb); India 1 (from 5/9, infiltrator); Nepal 55 (raid) |
| 6/16 | 0 | |
| 6/17 | 3 | Israel 3 (gun battle, late 6/15) |
| 6/18 | 10 | Isr/Pal 3 (1 bomb, 2 shooting); Indonesia 6 (4 shooting + 2 assassinated last week); Pakistan 1 (additional from 6/14 bomb) |
| 6/19 | 20 | Israel 20 (bomb) |
| 6/20 | 10 | Israel/Palestine 10 (7 bomb, 3 gunfight) |
| 6/21 | 9 | Israel/Palestine 9 (7 raid, 2 additional from 6/19 [1 bomb, 1 gunfight]) |
| 6/22 | 13 | Philippines 3 (shooting), Israel/Palestine 10 (shootings) |
| 6/23 | 0 | |
| 6/24 | 2 | Israel/Palestine 2 (1 firefight, 1 in building demolition 6/21) |
| 6/25 | 6 | Israel/Palestine 6 (missile) |
| 6/26 | 4 | Israel/Palestine 4 (shootings) |
| 6/27 | 13 | Pakistan 12 (govt-Qaeda firefight), Israel 1 |
| 6/28 | 3 | Israel/Palestine 3 |
| 6/29 | 19 | Afghan 19 (rocket attack on ammunition dump, plus 7 missing) |
| 6/30 | 4 | N/S Korea 4 (naval attack, plus 1 missing) |
| 7/1 | 3 | Isr/Pal 1 (raid); Kyrgyzstan 2 (Chinese diplomats shot, probably by Uighur militants) |
| June Total | 271 | |
| Range of predictions received: 283 to 2658. Closest: Paul Hensel, 283. |
Coding rules: This variable tracks the worldwide fatalities from war and civil conflict as reported in the New York Times. I count reported fatalities from any political violence involving armed groups on both sides -- for example, yes on civil wars, assassinations, and terrorism, but no on state executions or U.S. street gangs. The deaths must be directly inflicted (by some kind of weapon), though they need not be intentional. (Once you start counting indirect death like sick people who couldn't get to the hospital because of political violence, or people who are malnourished in a war zone, it gets very problematical to make a count - not to say it's unimportant.) The fatalities must be reported as part of some event and not just a background level (like, "4000 people are thought to have died this year" but we don't know when or where).
To Joshua S. Goldstein's home page
To "The Worldwide Lull in War" [Op Ed] (CS Monitor 5/14/02: 9)